Thursday, July 13, 2006
Time : 10:31 PM
Today
I read an piece written by Jason Gibbs of the Las Cruces Sun-News about a recent missile intercept test at the White Sands missile range. (
Story here) Essentially the test of the THAAD system was designed to use powerful radar and super accurate targeting to make one missile strike an incoming “enemy” missile that carried a simulated WMD payload. The purpose of which is to destroy it high enough above the ground, and with enough force to eliminate both the missile and any chance that the payload could affect targets on the ground. Our anti missile systems are based on our ability to calculate an arching trajectory from an enemy launch pad or ship to a target on American or ally soil. Once the path of the incoming missile is triangulated and plotted, interceptor missiles are sent to actually strike them out of the sky at a safe distance from us. Now of course, calculating all the variables for an incoming intercontinental ballistic missile is difficult beyond belief, but we have actually been having some level of success doing so. Unlike the Patriot anti missile system deployed in the gulf region... Some of the THAAD intercepts actually happened. This is great right? Makes us so much safer right? Well worth the billions (probably trillions) we have poured into “Star Wars” since the Reagan era? Hmm, Well maybe not... there is a kink in the fabric, a fray in the line, a fly in the ointment...
You see the Russians, and some think the Chinese, have developed ICBM's that ZIG ZAG... thats right.. they don't fly straight like our brilliant scientists want them to. So there is no nice clean flight trajectory to triangulate. No, way to predict the path and therefore no way to intercept. Our Trillion dollar project has effectively been antiquated before it ever left the lab. All those dollars spent by politicians, military experts and scientists, who have less foresight than my seven year old playing me in a game of chess. I wrote Mr. Gibbs who wrote the original article about his thoughts on this, and he was kind enough to promptly respond. He said:
Mr. Shilliday
You make a good point. My understanding (limited, certainly) is that THAAD is one part of a larger puzzle that will eventually address the more advanced incoming missiles. I freely admit my forte is writing, and I posess very little military knowledge. But I can say without reservation the fireworks were stunning.
Wish I could offer you a more intelligent response, but the technology is truly beyond me.
I do, however, deeply appreciate you taking the time to read the article and especially appreciate the fact you took time to respond.
Best regards,
Jason Gibbs
I appreciate his candor. I understand the military often want people seeing their successes, but often offer little in the way of whole explanations. Again, thank you Jason.
What can be said of this system? Is it truly going to make us safer? Would this money being spent on systems like THAAD be better spent on things like scanning all incoming ports for nukes stashed in shipping containers.
"based on our ability to calculate an arching trajectory from an enemy launch pad"...just when you convinced me that perhaps math IS necessary! FEH!
I can understand the value in this zig zag pattern for evading a precise shoot down- but how can THEY isolate a target while also employing this "unpredictable" trajectory pattern?
It seems to me that the technology that would help them both zig zag AND hit a target would help us shoot it down. (maybe target is not important though??? Just America would suffice? Random people?)It seems that the project expenses-if not- were a poor use of billions.
Wasnt it a long shot anyway as of now? More needed to be done.
For a sporadic pattern they must be able to establish when it hits a certain apex before commencing the sporadic pattern and get it shot down before. Seems such calculations would be possible eventually. As long as they originate from something in orbit, not on earth.
That IS cool that he wrote back. I am into learning more about this gig now.
Wel the trouble with zig zagging is that it cuts down the time we have tio actually make the intercept. Sending another missle takes time for it to fly and intercept. A laser of course would be faster but lazers of the correct power need to be housed in a 747 sized plane, and even then as a chemicaly generated laser would only offer one shot currently. At any rate lets just say that zig zagging fucks up our calculations in a major way and makes the destruction of the incoming nearly impossible.
There is so much I wish I could say about this article. But I cant. Let's just say all the info isn't out there. I, and anyone up at 0530 in the morning here on the North-East side of El Paso a few days ago, that was looking to the north towards whitesands, would have seen a curious glowing vapor trail which twisted its way throught the sky like a chinese dragon in a parade. Nothing happened for a while. We (myself and the people I happened to be standing next to) thought it was over. Then a pretty blue/orange ball of light appeared in the sky, and everyone cheered.
Mccs1977
loc--
Missile defense may eventually have substantial utility against rogue states, but our best defense today remains preemptive force. We need to turbanate nuke programs before the weapons are operational. The ambitious Arab Baathist Socialist Party in Iraq was a midterm nuke threat, but they're out of power and blowing up cars today. With regard to the other remaining member of the Axis of Evil, if Iran doesn't get their pooch (the Hez) back on the porch, Israel may end up taking out the nuclear program for us.
Yes...I think the port checking is essential...the money better spent... or at least it seems. I've often wondered why we haven't managed to have some suicide bombers here in the states...you know the back pack types. I think we are in for that business in the near future. I don't go to the big mall...although I live near one.
Thanks for posting on this...and I don't think I would have been sitting out in the sand "cheering", more like holding my head in disbelief...geez- one more thing to make me chug Mylanta at 3am...and I always wonder WHAT we just don't Know about ???!( because the media whores are too busy humping Paris Hilton and other Terra Crap...)..Keep informing us and helping us find the Truth...
the latest chapter in the saga of the absurdity of the arms race capsulized in this post ... nice job ...
I disagree that China would never attack their cash cow. I agree with it for NOW. As we outsource jobs and improve foreign economies dramatically, we will not be the only market for long and they will not need us, especially if our mismanaged finances creates the economic downturn predicted. We are putting far too much stock in the "can't attack us" scenario.
Right now they are also heavily invested in us- but that will be to their advantage when they pull out and watch our infrastructure crumble. If they want to.As our manufacturing plants go elsewhere- who would even supply a war effort? Our domination depends on some pretty tenuous factors remaining unchanged. Not realistic.
You think people will be filling their carts up with cheap Chinese exports forever?
Give the situation time. In twenty years we will not be the superpower we are today, and fewer people will put up with our shit.
Yes- it would take a long discussion to argue this and neither of us feel so inclined. I disagree on Taiwan as well. And with their ratings.
And...with the conclusions based on the yuan- undervalued- YES- but by whom??? By THEM. And everyone knows it and knows it hurts us and nobody does anything about it, even recently when there was pressure to call them on it.
Why is it that we cant even stand up to them on that small matter?
They are not as troubled as you describe, and if they were so destitute they would certainly not be looking to invest in technology initiatives and Boeing aircraft.
Now I am not saying they will just provoke conflict, and certainly they need energy now as we do. But therein also lies the problem which will emerge in the future as they must support their population. They will reamin belligerent on emissions too.
When was the last time someone fired a missile at the US?